CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-08T19:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-08T19:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30612/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in STEREO A COR2 for a few frames prior to and following a data gap lasting from 2024-05-08T19:53Z to 2024-05-09T01:53Z. The source is a filament eruption near Active Region 13667 (S26E22) starting around 2024-05-08T08:15Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Filament material can be seen against the backdrop of the East limb as the material continues to leave the field of view in SDO AIA 304 around 19:35Z. A large dimming area is seen in SDO AIA 193 at this time, which appears to move southwest of the eruption site. Additionally, some post-eruptive arcades are seen in SDO AIA 171/193 starting around 20:00Z. This CME likely combined with several other CMEs from 05-07 to 05-09, with the combined front of the CMEs arriving at L1 at 2024-05-10T16:36Z. The possible arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with Btotal increasing to 45nT at 16:44Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from 462 km/s at 16:36Z to 703 km/s at 16:48Z. Increases in density and temperature are also observed. A possible flux rope signature begins around 2024-05-10T21:38Z which corresponds to a second, more intense amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 73nT. Within this possible flux rope feature, which extends to 2024-05-11T09:30Z, there are three noticeable decreases in density which may correspond to three CMEs that may have merged into the signature. Because of this, it is possible the signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z, CME: 2024-05-08T12:24Z, and/or CME: 2024-05-08T19:12Z. CME: 2024-05-07T03:12Z and CME: 2024-05-07T05:24Z measured slowly and may have been overtaken by CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z. Preliminary analysis of this arrival signature was provided by Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS team at NASA GSFC.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-10T16:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-10T21:57Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.5 - 8.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 19.92 hour(s)
Difference: -5.35 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-05-09T20:41Z
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